BY HARRY BONDI
NFL Playoff underdogs entered last weekend on an amazing 13-1-1 run, as we noted in last week’s column. In turn, a large majority of both public bettors and professional handicappers thought the dogs would continue to cash tickets in the divisional round.
But they were wrong.
Luckily for members of Harry Bondi’s “Steam Team,” we faded the two most “public” plays of the weekend, easily winning our top-play 4-Star selections on Kansas City and New England while most everyone else crashed and burned with the popular Colts and Chargers.
Overall, we went 3-1 for the weekend, running our record in the NFL Playoffs to an amazing 64-20 (76%) since 2010!
If you would like to receive this weekend’s NFL Championship Game selections, the Super Bowl and our highly anticipated Super Bowl Prop Best Bet Report for FREE, call me today at 1-877-332-0077 and join our Basketball “Steam Team” through the Final Four in April for $900.
Or, call me at 1-877-332-0077 and get this Saturday’s College Hoop Underdog “Lock” for just $99! Don’t miss it!
Now, onto this weekend’s NFL Playoff betting trends:
- Overall, favorites have fare very well in the conference championships. Despite going 0-2 ATS last year, favorites are 64-31 straight up and 52-41-2 (56%) against the spread. Although this year’s conference championship games have a spread of around 3, keep in mind for future years that favorites of between 7-9.5 points have had the most success, going 17-8 (68%) against the spread in conference championships since 1970.
- Home teams have ruled in the Conference Championship, going 10-0 straight up the last five years and 8-2 ATS. Since the merger, home teams are 67-28 straight up and since 1980 No. 1 seeds are 30-12 straight up.
- Overall, 46 of the 97 Conference Championship Games in NFL history have been decided by 14 points or more, but the games have been closer in recent years. In the last eight years, only six of the 16 games on Championship Sunday have been decided by more than 10 points.
- The dog has been barking in the NFC Championship Game, cashing tickets in seven out of the last 11 years, with five outright wins. In the AFC, the home team has won 10 of the last 12 AFC Championship Games while going 9-3 ATS.
- The “under” is 8-5-1 (62%) the last seven Conference Championship Weekends. The AFC Championship Game has gone under in five of the last seven years with the losing team failing to score 20 points in all of those games that went under. Eight of the last 12 NFC Championship games have gone OVER the total. The home team has averaged over 30 points per game during that span.
- However, when a Conference Championship Game total is 46 points or higher, like both of this year’s Championship Games, the over is 14-6-1.
- Teams arriving to the championship game following a high scoring output in the previous game tend to struggle the following week. Teams that score 34 or more points in a divisional round have gone 21-20 straight up and just 16-25 ATS in the Conference Championship. Overall, since 1996, teams that score 40 or more points in a NFL playoff game, are just 4-25-1 ATS the following week. New England put up 41 last week against the Chargers and are the only team in that situation this weekend.
- Speaking of the Patriots, we used last week’s easy win and cover against the Chargers as a 4-Star “Lock” as part of a 3-1 weekend. New England is 8-2 ATS in its last eight playoff games, but has still covered just 11 of its last 23 playoff games overall, including a 2-5 ATS record in the AFC Championship Game.