BY HARRY BONDI
It’s been an underdog player’s delight in the NFL Playoffs.
Following last week’s solid covers by Indianapolis, Philadelphia and the Chargers, NFL Playoff underdogs are on a 13-1-1 run, if you count the Saturday night’s Seattle-Dallas game as a push.
Will that trend continue this weekend when the Divisional Round takes place? Read on, as we break down recent trends from this particular round and uncover a few facts that may very well surprise you.
Over the last few days, my staff and I have met multiple times to discuss what we have found through our extensive research regarding the NFL Playoffs, and below are just a few key factors out of the dozens and dozens we have uncovered.
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Now, onto some key handicapping factors for NFL Divisional Round weekend:
1. BYE WEEK IS OVERVALUED
Since 1978, when the first-round bye was introduced to the NFL playoff system, 61 of the 76 Super Bowl participants were teams that got to rest during the Wild Card Round. But that doesn’t make these teams are invincible. In 11 of the last 12 years at least one of the teams coming off a bye in the divisional round lost outright, with 2015 as the exception.
Since 2006, teams that are off a bye week in the divisional round are 31-19 straight up, but just 20-29-1 ATS, including the last seven years when the record is 21-7 SU, but just 12-16 ATS. The fact that the record of these same rested teams was 51-13 SU and 38-26 ATS from 1990 thru 2005, makes us think the oddsmaker finally caught up and is baking the bye week factor into the line. Also, favorites of between 3.5 and 9.5 have covered just eight of their last 20 chances in the divisional round.
As for No. 1 seeds, they are 12-18 ATS in Divisional Round games since 2003, despite the fact that the No. 1 seeds in each conference have advanced to the Super Bowl in five of the last five years. NFC top seeds have fared much better over the years, going 24-3 straight up and 18-9 ATS in the divisional round. This year’s No. 1 seeds are New Orleans and Kansas City.
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2. DIVISIONAL DOGS HAVE BEEN BARKING
We mentioned at the top that underdogs have been on an incredible run in the NFL Playoffs overall and if history has anything to do with it, that may continue this weekend. Since 1985, favorites are 86-81-4 ATS in the divisional round, but since 2006 underdogs have gone 27-20-1 ATS (58%) with 17 outright upsets. Also, double-digit favorites in this round are 24-20-2 ATS since 1990 with 12 of those big dogs winning outright, but we don’t have any of those this year.
In 2015, all four divisional round games were decided by 7 points or less, but that was a rare occurrence. In the last 30 years, more than half the divisional round games (85 out of 168) have been decided by 11 points or more, and 71 of those games were decided by more than two touchdowns.
One more trend of note this week: Teams coming off a win as an underdog in the Wildcard Round like Indy, Chargers and Eagles this week are just 11-43 straight up and 20-34 ATS in the Divisional Round.
3. ATS PLAYOFF STRUGGLES FOR THE PATRIOTS
New England has built a true dynasty and since 2003 they are the best team in the NFL against the spread, going 168-115-7 (61%), including a 37-17 ATS run since the start of the 2016 season. Those numbers are especially mind-boggling because in most cases dominant teams become overvalued in the betting marketplace, but not New England.
But the Pats have not been a dominant playoff ATS team. The Patriots are 18-18-1 with Tom Brady at QB in the postseason, including a 3-5 ATS record in the Super Bowl, and have covered just 10 of their last 24 playoff games.
But keep in mind that this weekend’s game against the Chargers is just the fifth time in 21 home playoff games that the Patriots have been a favorite of fewer than six points since 2003. They went 3-1 ATS in the previous four. The Pats have also been much better when they are at home in the playoffs with more than 7 days of rest, a situation that has seen them go 31-3 straight up and 19-13-2 (59.4%) ATS. New England has also won seven straight Divisional Round home playoff games, while going 6-1 ATS with the average win by 17 points per game.
4. OVERS HAVE BEEN PROFITABLE
Since 1975, overs in the divisional round have cashed at a 55% clip (71-57), but they’ve been especially kind in recent years, going 20-10 (67%) since 2010, including 6-2 the last two years.
This is impressive since many of these games have been played in cold weather sites, just like this year where New England and KC have home games.
What does it all mean for this weekend’s games? Give me a call today to find out!