Every year, we have used the same historical trends to help handicap the U.S. Open, but this year’s event brings another factor into play.
Since the third major championship on this year’s golf calendar heads to ultra scenic Pebble Beach this week, course form will play a major role, since the PGA TOUR plays a regular stop each year at the northern California gem.
Past results tell us that this year’s winner of the 119th playing of the U.S. Open will be a player who has enjoyed success here before.
Pebble Beach has hosted six major championships (five U.S. Opens and one PGA Championship). Five of the six winners had previously won the Pebble Beach Pro Am Event and the only one that hadn’t (Graeme McDowell in 2010) had a previous best finish of T-8.
So, it’s safe to say we’ve looked very closely at past course history as we considered this week’s picks. Here are the other factors:
World Class Players: Six of the last eight U.S. Open winners ranked in the Top 22 of the World Golf Ranking and five of those winners were in the Top 9. However, keep in mind that the No. 1 ranked player in the world entering the U.S. Open has only won once in the last 14 years and that was Tiger Woods in his prime when he prevailed at Torrey Pines in 2008.
Consider Long Shots: Yes, we expect an elite player to win, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be one of the odds-on favorites. In the last 10 years, the average price of the U.S. Open winner has been a whopping been 42.6-to-1, with guys like Brooks Koepka in 2017 (30-to-1), Martin Kaymer in 2014 (40-to-1), Webb Simpson in 2012 (50-to-1), McDowell in 2010 (66-to-1) and Lucas Glover in 2009 (150-to-1) all cashing huge tickets.
Young Guns: The U.S. Open is probably the most grueling event of the golf season as it taxed players both physically and mentally. That said, the last 11 U.S. Open winners were under the age of 33 and seven of them were in their 20s. Also, before the last two years when Koepka warmed up by playing the week before, seven of the previous nine U.S. Open champs came in with at least one week of rest.
With all of the above in mind, here are two of the players we are betting this week and one matchup Best Bet. For our complete card of U.S. Open winners, call 1-877-332-0077 right now and ask for Harry!
Justin Rose
With Koepka, DJ, Rory and Tiger getting most of the betting “love” this week, Rose has become a forgotten man, which is just the way we like it. No, he doesn’t have a ton of experience on this course (an eight-place and 39th in two Pebble Beach Pro Am starts), but he has had great success in the state of California (five Top 8 finishes in his last 10 Golden State starts, including a win at Torrey Pines). On May 19, Rose’s odds to win the U.S. Open were as low as 14-to-1 at some books. Since then he’s made three cuts in three starts, including a 13th place finish at the Memorial. But somehow his odds have soared to 25-to-1. He’s older than we would like (38), but he’s ranked No. 4 in the World, he’s well rested and, of course, he is a former U.S. Open winner. We can’t resist this price. As for a match-up, we like Rose to top Adam Scott, who in three starts at Pebble Beach missed the cut once with a best finish of T-52.
Bet Justin Rose to win the U.S. Open at 25-to-1
Bet Justin Rose (-125) over Adam Scott
Jason Day
Talk about a Horse for the Course! In 10 Pebble Beach starts the 31-year-old has six top 10s and eight top 14s, including runner-ups in 2011 and 2013. A big reason for his success at Pebble is that Day doesn’t mind Poa Annua greens, as seen by his four wins since 2008 on courses that feature those fuzzy greens. He’s ranked No. 16 in the world and in 14 major championship starts since winning the 2015 PGA Championship he has eight top 20s. He’s also in great season-long form with five top 10s in 14 starts, including a T-5 at Augusta. What’s more, Day made a drastic move this week when he handed over his bag to caddie Steve Williams, who Tiger Woods’ caddie for 13 majors, including at Pebble Beach in 2000, as well as Adam Scott’s win at the Masters in 2013.
Bet Jason Day to win U.S. Open at 25-to-1
Match-up Best Bet
Brooks Koepka (+110) v. Rory McIlroy
Yes, Rory was absolutely magnificent last week in winning the Canadian Open, but the betting markets have overreacted. If this match-up was offered last month after Koepka steamrolled his way to another major win at the PGA Championship, he would have been at least a -130 favorite. Now he is a dog? Not only does Koepka check all of the above boxes, but Rory has only one start at Pebble Beach and that was a missed cut in 2018. Koepka’s lone start here came in 2016 and he finished eighth.
Bet Brooks Koepka (+110) over Rory McIlroy