We hope this edition of the new Bondi Blog finds you and yours healthy.
We can’t handicap sports, other than horse racing, right now but we are still following things as closely as ever in hopes that sooner rather than later we will be back making money betting major sports.
We have to laugh at the reputation NY Jets head coach Adam Gase earned as a “quarterback whisperer.” Gase worked with Peyton Manning for three seasons in Denver as the quarterbacks coach in 2012 and offensive coordinator in 2013 and 2014. In 2013, Denver set the record for most points scored in a regular season (606) and Manning set the all-time record for touchdown passes in a single season.
Since that time, Gase moved on to become Chicago’s offensive coordinator for one season (2015), before lasting three seasons as Miami’s head coach (2016-2018). For some reason, the Jets thought it was a good idea to hire a guy as their head coach that a division rival just fired.
Without Manning as his QB, Gase-led offenses have averaged finishing 27th in the league in yards per game and 25th in the league in points per game. QB Sam Darnold was the No. 3 overall pick by the Jets in the 2018 NFL Draft and hasn’t exactly flourished under Gase. Last season, he finished with the third-worst QBR in the league in 13 starts. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill, the QB Gase couldn’t win with in Miami, went to Tennessee, stole the starting job from Marcus Mariota and went on to win Comeback Player of the Year Award and a spot in the Pro Bowl while leading the Titans to the AFC Championship Game.
The Jets got offensive help with their first two picks in the draft, taking Louisville tackle Mekhi Becton and wide receiver Denzel Mims. If Gase doesn’t start doing some “whispering” with Darnold and the Jets offense, which ranked 31st in points per game last season and 32nd in yards per game, he won’t last the season in New York.
When Cincinnati took LSU hero Joe Burrow as the No. 1 pick in last week’s NFL Draft, it marked the third straight year the Heisman Trophy winner went first overall, the first time that’s ever happened, following Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield.
Of course, the jury is still out on both Murray and Mayfield. Murray was erratic in his rookie season in Arizona, but showed glimpses of greatness, especially later in the year when head coach Kliff Kingsbury started to give his young QB more protection by using more sets with a tight end on the line to block. As we predicted in a Bondi Blog before the draft, the Cardinals got help on defense, using four of their first five picks on defensive players.
As for Mayfield, we love the moves new Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski has made since taking over. The Browns were everyone’s chic pick to challenge for a divisional and AFC crown last year (except us!) but with a moron head coach, a putrid offensive line and a bunch of diva star players they had zero chance of meeting those expectations.
Mayfield was the fourth-most hurried QB in the NFL last season and the Browns O-line ranked at the bottom in the league in run blocking. In response, Stefanski made a huge commitment to protecting Mayfield, grabbing LT Jedrick Wills and TE Harrison Bryant in the draft and RT Jack Conklin, TE Austin Hooper and FB Andy Janovich via free agency.
The 2020 version of the Cleveland Browns may very well be the Tampa Bay Bucs. We said in the Bondi Blog earlier this month that TB should be better in 2020 simply because without Jameis Winston at QB their turnover margin is going to be much improved. But after signing former Patriot future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski, the hype for the Bucs is getting out of control.
At WagerWeb Sportsbook, the Bucs’ season win total is currently 9.5 (-160). That means only FOUR teams — San Francisco (over 10.5, -117), New Orleans (over 10.5, +108), Kansas City (over 11.5, -120), Baltimore (over 11.5 -120) — have a higher odds for total season wins than TB12 and the Bucs. Meanwhile in Las Vegas, one of the biggest sportsbook operators told me Tampa Bay, at 14-to-1 odds, is second in both total number of tickets and dollars wagered at 7% apiece. Outrageous!
The SEC certainly flexed its muscles during the NFL Draft. Seven of the top 10 players and 11 of the first 16 were from the conference. This also marked the 10th time in the current draft era that one conference had at least 10 players selected in the first round and in nine of those 10 instances it was the SEC.
We are hopeful that all sports return soon and expect that there will be a full NFL season because the commissioner and owners are committed to embracing the “new reality” more than other leagues. Roger Goodell took a lot of heat for holding the draft during the pandemic, but it was a welcome diversion from the virus and got record TV ratings. TV controls everything in sports and the NFL makes so much money off their TV contract, that the owners will make a fortune, even without a live gate.
Finally, thanks so much to those who have taken the time to call and check on us. We are healthy and looking forward to the return of sports, since it is our livelihood as well as our passion, more than you can imagine. When sports do return, make sure you are a member of the “Steam Team” as this pandemic has allowed us more time than ever to get ready for the start of the season and we are going to start stronger than ever!