The Kentucky Derby is here and, once again, we will be using our picks as part of a huge opening weekend of May Madness.
In addition the NBA Playoffs and the Kentucky Derby, we will also be releasing our Major League Baseball “Lock of the Year” on Saturday, May 5. Our chief baseball handicapper Frank Drake spotted this potential “Lock” game over a week ago and things have played out just as he hoped, giving us the starting pitching and bullpen mismatch we were hoping for..
Call Harry Bondi right now at 1-877-332-0077 and if you purchase our Baseball “Lock of the Year” for $99, we will throw in our complete Kentucky Derby betting package for free!
In the meantime, here are some key Kentucky Derby betting trends, as well as a longshot worth consideration during tomorrow’s Run for the Roses. It’s almost post time! Call and speak to Harry right now.
Avoid the far inside and outside posts
Since the Derby starting using a 20-horse field it has been extremely difficult for horses on the far inside or far outside to either have enough early speed to get ahead of the pack, or to overcome hanging back and falling behind.
Since 1964 only one winner (Ferdinand, 1986) has come from the No. 1 post and last year Lookin’ at Lee became the first horse in 19 years to come in the money after placing. Only one winner in the history of the race (Big Brown, 2008) has won from the No. 20 post.
Pay attention to Prep races results
One of the first things you should do when you grab the Racing Form is to check the results of a few key prep races that helped decide this year’s Kentucky Derby field, since the last seven Derby winners won their final prep race.
The Florida Derby, won this year by Todd Pletcher’s Audible, has produced five Kentucky Derby winners in the last 16 years, including last year’s winner, Always Dreaming. During that same time period, the Santa Anita Derby, won by Justify this year, and the Arkansas Derby, won by Magnum Moon, have seen three winners each go on to prevail at Churchill Downs.
Recent results have been chalky
No favorite won the Kentucky Derby from 1980 to 1999, but that has changed in recent years. Over the last 13 years, seven of the betting favorites have cashed in, including four out of the last five years (Nyqust in 2016, American Pharoah in 2015, California Chrome in 2014 and Orb in 2013). The only favorite not to win during that time period was Classic Empire last year, but it’s not like the winner was a longshot as Always Dreaming was the second choice at 5-to-1.
A long shot worth considering
Despite the recent successful runs by the favorites, you always want to have some sort of semi-long shot on your card. Heck, even if you didn’t pick the winner last year, you could have made decent coin by having the place (Lookin’ at Lee) and show (Battle of Midway) horses in the mix since they went off at 20-to-1 and 30-to-1, respectively. One horse we are looking seriously at in tomorrow’s Derby is Good Magic, the No. 6 horse who is the son of Curlin, the star thoroughbred that won the 2007 Preakness Stakes, 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic and 2008 Dubai World Cup.
We’ve had our eye on Good Magic since he won last year’s Juvenile Breeders’ Cup as a maiden. Despite just three starts as a 2-year-old, Good Magic blew away the field down the stretch by 5.5 lengths, showing he has the perfect running style and tactical speed to win a Kentucky Derby. Watch the race, by clicking here.
After a flat effort in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in his first start of 2018, Good Magic responded by beating a full field from the outside post and won the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes on April 7, setting him up for a prime effort on Saturday in the Run for the Roses, so we love the 12-to-1 morning line odds and will definitely have him on our card somewhere.
If you would like our complete card for the Kentucky Derby for FREE, call and speak to Harry Bondi right now at 1.877.332.0077