Unlike the Preakness when we had the winner, we won’t be betting Justify to win the Belmont Stakes on Saturday and, thus, become just the second horse to win the Triple Crown since 1978.
But before you pat us on the back for taking a shot and calling for an upset, calm down. Take a look inside the numbers and you’ll find that we really aren’t making an earth-shattering prediction by going against Justify, the 4-to-5 heavy favorite this year.
First off, the favorite has struggled mightily at the Belmont Stakes in recent history. Yes, overall the betting favorite has won 47% of the 149 runnings of the Belmont Stakes, but since 2005 only one favorite has won. That was, of course, in 2015 when American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown trick, returning just $3.50.
Secondly, rested horses fare much better in the Belmont than those — like Justify — who are running their third race in five weeks. Since 1978, when Affirmed won Triple Crown, 14 horses have come to the Belmont with a chance to win and only one (American Pharoah) pulled off the hat trick.
What’s more, since 2000, only three horses have run in all three Triple Crown races and won the Belmont. And of the last nine Belmont winners, only one of them (American Pharoah, again!) also ran in the Preakness that same year.
Why? Because the Belmont is such a grueling race and, by far, the most difficult leg of the Triple Crown. The track is known as “Big Sandy” because of its overall dimensions, two very wide turns, and a deep, tiring surface. It’s also a longer race than the Kentucky Derby or Preakness at 1 ½ miles.
Taking all of the above into consideration and we just can’t pull the trigger on Justify winning the Belmont Stakes.
Here are three horse we are considering as our pick to win the Belmont. To get our official Belmont Stakes Betting Package, call 1.877.332.0077:
No. 4 — Hofburg — 9-to-2
The Belmont’s second favorite, this is a horse that is bred for distance. The colt’s dam was Soothing Touch, a daughter of Touch Gold, who won the 1997 Belmont. With only four lifetime starts, he is fresh. One of those starts came at the Kentucky Derby where he had a rough trip,
but managed to finish seventh. While horses that already ran in both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness have struggled in the Belmont, 18 of the last 24 winners have run in one of the two, and 12 of the last 18 winners entered with at least four weeks off.
One more note: In 10 of the last 11 years, the winner of the Belmont has had a New York-based jockey and/or trainer, including last year when Jose Ortiz, a celebrated rider on the New York Thoroughbred horse racing circuit since 2012, rode Tapwrit to victory. Hofburg’s jockey on Saturday will be Irad Ortiz Jr, is the jockey, brother of Jose and a also a longtime rider (and winner!) in the New York Thoroughbred horse racing circuit
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No. 7 — Tenfold — 12-to-1
After skipping the Kentucky Derby, he finished a solid third in the Preakness. With just four lifetime starts, Tenfold is fresh and is getting better and better with every start, as his Beyer Speed Figure has ballooned from 87 to 95. If he continues to improve at that rate, he’ll not only be a factor on Saturday, he will win!l
No. 8 — Vino Rosso — 8-to-1
The winner of the Wood Memorial in impressive fashion, Vino Rosso is one of two Todd Pletcher horses in the race and that’s a factor since the veteran trainer has three Belmonts winners to his name He is another one that is bred for this distance,. And since he ran the Kentucky Derby (finished 9th) and skipped the Preakness, he fits the mold of a horse that is both tested and rested.