The departure of some quality entrants from the Preakness Stakes field — including the controversial Kentucky Derby horses — most certainly hasn’t taken away from the intrigue of Saturday’s race at Pimlico.
A field of 13 will enter the gate in a Preakness Stakes with some interesting story lines. First off, with Country House sidelined with a cough, this will mark the first time since 1996 that the current year’s Derby winner will not participate. In fact, with the Derby’s place horse (Code of Honor) and show horse (Tacitus) also on the shelf, this marks the first time since 1951 that the top three horses from the Kentucky Derby will not compete for the Preakness Stakes crown. What’s more, Maximum Security, the horse that finished the Derby finish line first, but was ultimately DQ’d, is also not running this Saturday.
Nonetheless, we don’t expect the suddenly diminished field to change the fact that the Preakness has been a favorite’s bettor’s paradise. Not only has the betting favorite won 73 of the 143 runnings of the Preakness, but the chalk has also finished first in 14 of the last 33 editions and has placed nine times. The second betting choice has prevailed nine times and finished second four times, and over the last 33 years, the Preakness favorite has hit the board 25 times, while finishing in the top four 29 times.
What does it all mean for this year’s running of The Preakness?
Well, we are definitely going to be keying the favorites, which at this writing include Improbable (5-to-2) and War of Will (5-to-1). But also keep in mind that there is typically some outsiders that also come in the money at the Preakness since the top two favorites haven’t finished 1-2 at the Preakness since 1981. Over the last six years, 10 of the 19 horses that have come in the money had double-digit odds and in 14 of the last 19 years there has been at least one horse with double-digit odds to finish in the top two.
With that in mind, here are just a few of the bigger priced horses we are looking to have on our card along with Improbable and War of Will:
No. 2 – Bourbon War – 12-to-1:
A flatout closer, Bourbon War won one of two starts as a two-year-old and then won his first start of 2019 at Gulfstream before taking second to eventual Kentucky Derby runner-up Code of Honor at Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes Code of Honor. Something tells us he may be primed for a great showing on Saturday.
No. 5 – Owendale – 10-to-1:
The winner of the Lexington Stakes has a trainer in Brad Cox who has a history of having underdog horses perform well in big races, so Owendale fits the profile. He’s got three wins in eight career starts and our bird dogs say he has looked fantastic since arriving from Keeneland, with a bullet workout of five furlongs in :59.20 seconds earlier this week. If the 10-to-1 number is still there on Saturday, we won’t be able to pass it up.
No. 7 – Alwaysmining – 8-to-1:
Talk about peaking at the right time. Alwaysmining has won five consecutive stakes races by a combined 26 ½ lengths, and they were all mostly gate-to-wire victories. He is more than just fast. Alwaysmining has the type of tactical speed that’s crucial to win a race like the Preakness. His trainers have trained him for this race, rather than putting him through the rigors of the Kentucky Derby trail, so he is primed for Pimlico. He is sure to set the pace around the first turn and if he can hold off a final surge, Alwaysmining will be in the money.
No. 12 – Anothertwistafate – 6-to-1:
The horse being ridden by Jose Ortiz is one of the most versatile competitors we’ve seen in years. He’s won from behind and he’s won from ahead. He’s been in the money in different surfaces at tracks all over the country, including taking second to Owendale at the Lexington Stakes. In other words, Anothertwistafate is build for adversity and we like that in any animal or athlete that we’re going to back. The trainers held him out of the Kentucky Derby because they felt he just wasn’t ready. When asked to elaborate, we love this answer: “We thought, ‘Well, let’s take our best stab in the Preakness.’ That gives our horse five weeks to prepare, which has been ideal for him in the past.” Anothertwistafate has been first or second in all of his last five starts and we won’t be surprised if that’s the case on Saturday at Pimlico.