The spring is also a great time of year to be a sports bettor with the start of baseball season, the NBA Playoffs and, of course, golf.
The Masters is truly a made-for-TV spectacle that is also a great event to bet and handicap since it’s unique in that it is played on the same course every year.
Over the years we have had great success with our golf picks, particularly in the majors and this year’s Masters field is one of the most wide open we’ve seen in years.
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Key Betting Trends for the Masters
Experience: The average number of career starts at the Masters for a first-time champion is five and the last time a first-timer won the green jacket was nearly four decades ago. Also, the last 17 Masters champions made the cut the year before and nine of the last 14 winners have played in at least 20 majors in their career. Finally, 24 of the last 27 winners have previously shot a round in the 60s at Augusta. Put it all together and you can see why past experience on this course is so crucial.
Recent Form: The last 14 Masters champions had already recorded a top-10 in the current season, meaning you should avoid a player who has started the season off struggling. Augusta National is not the place to shake off the rust.
Bogey avoidance and par 5 performance: The last 10 Masters champions are a whopping 97-under par on par-5s. Also, every winner over the last 10 years had total bogey score of less than 10-over.
Fast starts: For in-play wagering, nine of the last 10 Masters winners shot in the 60s during Round 1 and while the Round 1 leader has gone on to win just twice in the last 32 years, only two winners have been outside the Top 10 heading into Round 2 since 1998, and 80 of the last 81 winners were within six strokes of the lead at the start of Round 3. It also appears to help if you are in the final pairing on Sunday, since that’s where the winner has come from in 22 of the last 27 years.
Fast starts: For in-play wagering, nine of the last 10 Masters winners shot in the 60s during Round 1 and while the Round 1 leader has gone on to win just twice in the last 32 years, only two winners have been outside the Top 10 heading into Round 2 since 1998, and 80 of the last 81 winners were within six strokes of the lead at the start of Round 3. It also appears to help if you are in the final pairing on Sunday, since that’s where the winner has come from in 22 of the last 27 years.
Jason Day to WIN
18-to-1
We love the value here on Jason Day, who checks all of the above boxes, yet seems to be a forgotten man when the favorites for this year have been discussed. Day has recorded seven Top 10s in his last 11 majors — including a PGA Championship victory — and in seven starts at the Masters (excluding 2012 when he had to withdraw) he has three Top 10s, including a runner-up in 2011, and has never finished worse than 28th. This season, he already has a win and a runner-up, as well as a pair of T-11 finishes and he ranks in the top 50 in bogey avoidance and par 5 scoring. He also ranks ninth in par-5 scoring, a key stat mentioned above, and he’s had great success at Augusta with four top 20 finishes in five starts, including a T-2 in 2011 when he fired a 64 in the third round. If he can channel his emotions and go out there and have fun playing golf again, Day will be in contention on Sunday and we can’t resist the big price.
CLICK HERE TO BET JASON DAY to WIN at 25-to-1 AT BETONLINE
MATCH-UPS and PROP BETS
Paul Casey (-130) over Rickie Fowler
In 11-career starts at Augusta, Casey has recorded five top 10s and seven top 20s. He won for the first time on American soil earlier this year at the Valspar Open and he ranks 20th in par-5 scoring and 17th in bogey avoidance. Fowler did finish 5th in the 2014 Masters, but he missed the cut two years ago and has been up and down this season, missing the cut twice in his last six starts.
Thomas Pieters (+130) over Ian Poulter
Poulter, at right, could be an emotional mess this week. The punchy Englishman thought he had missed out on a place in the Masters two weeks due to a mix-up during the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, but secured a last-minute spot by winning the Houston Open last week. He arrived late at Augusta this week and said on Wednesday that he has “zero expectations,” adding, “I have never pitched up to the Masters on a Tuesday afternoon, I would never have done as little preparation as I’m about to do for this event . .. I believe I’m unprepared.” Add in the fact that Poulter ranks 101st this season in par 5 scoring and 107th in bogey avoidance and you can see why we’re going to fade him. In his first Masters start last year, the talented Pieters finished in 4th place, so he obviously likes the design.
Zach Johnson to make the cut (YES, -200)
Don’t mind laying the big price here. Yes, the 2007 Masters champ has missed the cut at Augusta the last two years, but his game is clicking right now and since last year’s Masters he has made 13 straight cuts and has missed the cut just three times in his last 25 tournaments. He also has six Top 20s this year and ranks 4th in bogey avoidance and 13th in par 5 scoring. He will be there this weekend.