There’s a Triple Crown race going off tomorrow in New York, but it’s by name only.
With both the Kentucky Derby (Always Dreaming) and Preakness Stakes winners (Cloud Computing) opting out and the likely favorite (Classic Empire) sidelined with a hoof injury, this year’s Belmont Stakes features a rather ordinary field; basically your average run-of-the-mill 11th race that you would see on any other Saturday afternoon.
Nonetheless, there is money to be made tomorrow at the Belmont, and that’s what we plan to do by following the below tips and trends:
Fade the Favorite: The betting favorite has won 48% of the 148 runnings of the Belmont Stakes, but since 2005 only one favorite has won. That was, of course, in 2015 when American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown trick, returning $3.50. This year, with Classic Empire out, we have a “fake favorite” in Irish War Cry. There’s nothing about this horse that tells us he should be expected to win, so when you add in the recent struggles of the chalk in this race, we are passing on Irish War Cry.
I Love New York: In nine of the last 10 years, the winner of the Belmont has had a New York-based jockey and/or trainer, with — guess who? — American Pharoah the lone exception. The reason? The Belmont is, by farm the most difficult leg of the Triple Crown. The track is known as “Big Sandy” because of its overall dimensions and deep, tiring surface and it’s also a longer race than the Kentucky Derby or Preakness at 1 ½ miles.
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Rest is Best: Because the Belmont is such a grueling race, we always try to bet on horses that are fresh. That means we want them to be lightly raced and it’s a huge benefit it they did not run in the Preakness, which is always three weeks before the Belmont. Of the last eight Belmont winners, only one of them (American Pharoah!) also ran in the Preakness that same year.
With the above trends in mind, here are the horses we are leaning toward using in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes (in order of post position):
No. 2 – Tapwrit – 6-to-1: Finished a distant sixth at the Kentucky Derby, but the fact that he qualified for that race, means he’s legit enough to contend against this field. He has the pedigree with Belmont winners in his genes. Trainer Todd Pletcher has two wins at the Belmont and in both cases the winning horse ran the Derby and skipped the Preakness. In fact, nine of the last 17 Belmont winners ran the Kentucky Derby, but sat out the Preakness.
No. 4 – J Boys Echo – 15-to-1: He has a rough trip at the Kentucky Derby, finishing 15th, but is worth a look at 15-to-1. He’s got the pedigree to run the distance, he has the best Beyer Speed figure in the field and he beat Preakness winner Cloud Computing at the Gotham.
No. 6 – Looking at Lee – 5-to-1: We hate the fact that he is the only horse in the field that ran both the Derby and Preakness. That’s bad news because since 2000 only three horses have run in all three Triple Crown races and then won the Belmont. Nonetheless, we love that jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. has been one of the leading riders in New York for the last five years and he is a strong finisher. Despite a horrible start at the Preakness, he managed to come in fourth and when you look at the video you realize that without that trouble at the gate he might have won that race.
No. 9 – Meantime – 15-to-1: Jockey Mike Smith is a Hall of Famer and is an elite stakes race rider, with two Belmont Stakes victories on his resume. He understands what it takes to win on this track’s backstretch. This horse has the speed to win and is lightly raced. In four-career starts, Meantime has one win and has never been worse than third.
No. 11 – Epicharis – 4-to-1: Hailing from Japan, his trainers decided to keep him out of both the Derby and Preakness because they didn’t feel like he was ready, which means they have been pointing toward and preparing for the Belmont all year. In five career starts he has four wins and a second place finish.