March Madness is upon us, and while it’s the most exciting time of year for college basketball fans, it’s also the most dangerous time for unsuspecting sports bettors.
Like clockwork, every year, guys who haven’t watched a single college basketball game all season suddenly get swept up in the frenzy. They start listening to their buddies or the so-called experts on TV, and by the time Thursday’s tipoff arrives, they’re convinced they’re the next Dick Vitale. Next thing you know, they’re betting every game with both fists.
The result? Let’s just say the sportsbooks LOVE this time of year. In March alone last year, Nevada sportsbooks cleaned up with a staggering $29.8 million in profits, fueled by “square” bettors chasing the madness.
But you don’t have to be one of them. Take it from someone who’s been betting professionally for over three decades—if you want to turn March Madness into big money, follow the expert strategies below. My Basketball “Steam Team” has hit 66% of its March Madness picks over the last 15 years!
Call Harry Bondi today at 1.877.332.0077 to get every basketball pick—NBA and college—from now through the Final Four for just $300!
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1. Pick Your Spots
The first two days of the NCAA Tournament are a bettor’s minefield—32 games in 48 hours can be overwhelming. If you’re not disciplined, your bankroll could be gone before you even sit down for dinner on Thursday.
Do yourself a favor: Limit yourself to 3-5 bets per day. Use the same “survive and advance” strategy as the teams. As the tournament moves into the Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final Four, don’t feel pressured to bet every game. The sharper the market gets, the more selective you need to be.
2. Power Programs Prevail
Everyone loves Cinderella stories, but the power programs dominate March Madness. Here’s why:
- Higher-seeded teams have won 70% of all NCAA Tournament games since 2002.
- Only four teams with pre-tournament odds worse than 20-to-1 have won it all since 1978 (NC State 1983, Villanova 1985, UConn 2011 & 2014).
- Excluding UConn’s 100-to-1 miracle run in 2014, only two teams seeded worse than No. 6 have reached the Championship Game in the last 35 years.
- In 32 of the last 33 years, the National Champion has been a No. 4 seed or better.
- Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams, 60% of Final Four teams have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed.
Bottom line: If you’re looking for a champion, focus on the elite programs.
3. Coaching Matters
Experience on the sidelines is critical in March.
Over the last 15 years, only six head coaches have reached the Final Four without at least four previous NCAA Tournament appearances (Chris Beard from Texas Tech, Brad Stevens from Butler, Kevin Ollie from UConn, Porter Moser from Loyola-Chicago, Hubert Davis from North Carolina and Dusty May from Florida Atlantic).
More importantly, 27 of the last 29 National Champions had a head coach with Sweet 16 experience. Don’t bet on an inexperienced coach to navigate the pressure of March Madness—back proven winners.
4. Manage Your Bankroll
Don’t go crazy just because it’s March Madness. Treat it like any other betting event.
- Set a base unit size and stick to it.
- If you’re part of my Steam Team, a 3-star play is a standard bet, a 5-star play is double, and a 10-star play is the max.
- Never risk more than 3x your normal bet—ever.
Everyone wishes they had bet more when they win, but when things go south, you’ll be grateful for your discipline.
5. Have Multiple Outs & Shop for the Best Line
If you only have one sportsbook, you’re leaving money on the table. Lines can move 2-3 points in a single day, often favoring public teams like Duke, Kentucky, Auburn, and Kansas.
If you’re locked into just one book, you’re playing right into the hands of the house. You need at least 3-4 sportsbooks to always get the best line.
Need an offshore book? Check the Online Sportsbook Rankings on our site for the best bonuses and offers.
6. Let an Expert Help You Win
Know the teams you’re betting on and against. Understand their playing styles:
- Are they an up-tempo team looking to push the pace?
- Are they a slow, defensive team that grinds out possessions?
When contrasting styles clash, the team that dictates tempo has the edge. For example, one of the biggest pace mismatches in this year’s first round? New Mexico (6th fastest pace) vs. Marquette (196th).
The best way to maximize your profits? Join forces with Harry Bondi, a 38-year veteran of the sports handicapping industry.
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7. Don’t Bet With Emotion
Your alma mater is in the tournament? Great. That doesn’t mean you should blindly bet on them.
- Don’t overreact to a team’s last game—no team is as good or as bad as it looked.
- Betting on or against a coach you love or hate? Be careful.
- Drinking at the sports bar all day and suddenly want to fire a big bet on the late game? Go to bed instead—you’ll thank yourself later.